Confidence Assessment/Calibration
Drummond Otten, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Calibration of scientific reasoning ability. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 36(3), e2306 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.2306
Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2019). Better beware: Comparing metacognition for phishing and legitimate emails. Metacognition and Learning, 14(3), 343-362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-019-09197-5
Bruine de Bruin, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2017). Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists. PNAS, 114(13), 3297-3304. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1615461114
Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Can adolescents predict significant events in their lives? Journal of Adolescent Health, 41, 208-210.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2007.03.014
Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B. (2002). What number is “fifty-fifty”? Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities. Risk Analysis, 22, 725-735. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00063
Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205. https://doi.org/10.1086/317762
Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000). A new scale for assessing perceptions of chance: A validation study. Medical Decision Making, 20, 298-307. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X000200
Fischhoff, B., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1999). Fifty/fifty = 50? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 149-163. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199906)12:2<149::AID-BDM314>3.0.CO;2-J
Shaklee, H., & Fischhoff, B. (1990). The psychology of contraceptive surprises: Judging the cumulative risk of contraceptive failure. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 20(5), 385-403.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1990.tb00418.x
Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798. https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L.D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: State of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.6.2.107
Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5
Fischhoff, B. & Slovic, P. (1980). A little learning...: Confidence in multicue judgment. In R. Nickerson (ed.), Attention and performance, VIII (pp. 779-800). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0